US Economy And Monetary Policy
13 January 2014 | The US economy has become strong enough to grow on its feet, allowing the Federal Reserve to withdraw in measured steps the exceptional monetary stimulus. We believe that the process known as “taper” will unfold slowly as subdued inflation allows the Fed to buy some time after Quantitative Easing (QE) expires before raising benchmark interest rates.
China: Speeding Up The Transition To A Competitive Economy
12 December 2013 | In this piece Mauro Ratto, offers his insights on China’s prospects after the new leadership unveiled a bold plan for economic reforms at the November party gathering. The plan’s key principle is that the economy needs more market discipline, a change involving first of all the largest state-owned companies.
Taking stock one year into Abenomics
11 February 2014
In this piece our Head of Global Asset Allocation Research, Monica Defend, reflects about the results of the new course of economic policy in Japan known as Abenomics and what its ambitious schedule has yet to achieve more than a year later. The conclusion is that the most difficult part, structural economic reforms, is still far from implementation.
CIO Letter: Walking on a tightrope - (Amid the Credibility of Central Banks and the Risk of Crisis)
04 February 2014
In this letter, Giordano Lombardo, Group CIO, elaborates on the risks that could undermine our investment strategy and the commitment of our investment teams in limiting their impact. Specifically, the main risks to our base scenario are a change in investors’ expectations on monetary policies, the deflation in Europe, and a slowdown of the world economy, driven by a renewed crisis in Emerging Markets.